2019 AFC Asian Cup / World Cup qualification

AFC Champions League, Asian Cup, and everything else domestic and international.
User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

2019 AFC Asian Cup / World Cup qualification

Postby nzfooty » Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:17 pm

The 2015 thread can be found here.

Looks like the hosts will be chosen from the following four: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Thailand

The tournament will feature 24 team for the first time.

It appears that the qualification process will look like this:

FIFA World Cup/AFC Asian Cup preliminary qualification round:
There will be 8 groups, with the 8 winners and the 4 best runners-up qualifying for the AFC Asian Cup finals (as well as the final qualification round of the FIFA World Cup)

Additional AFC Asian Cup qualification round:
The next best 24 teams who were eliminated from the FIFA World Cup will get a second shot at qualifying for the AFC Asian Cup finals.

They will be divided into six groups of four, and they will compete for the remaining 11 or 12 places in the AFC Asian Cup finals.

I think that this a fairly logical set-up and an improvement on what they have now, with the overlapping AFC and FIFA WC qualifiers and additional qualifiers from the challenge cup.

User avatar
Holyjoe
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 12062
Joined: Wed Apr 06, 2005 11:57 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby Holyjoe » Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:17 pm

Yeah that does seem to make sense. Cuts down the number of international dates a bit for the bigger nations too. Presumably this will lead to a lot of the really low ranked nations (Cambodia, Pakistan, Mongolia etc) potentially playing a lot more regularly against the bigger nations in the same way that the Faroe Islands and San Marino do in Europe? Up until now they were knocking each other out in the preliminary rounds before just a handful progressed to the group stages. Could be some interesting new destinations for Korea if they don't split qualifying on a geographic basis.

User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby nzfooty » Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:34 pm

Holyjoe wrote:Yeah that does seem to make sense. Cuts down the number of international dates a bit for the bigger nations too. Presumably this will lead to a lot of the really low ranked nations (Cambodia, Pakistan, Mongolia etc) potentially playing a lot more regularly against the bigger nations in the same way that the Faroe Islands and San Marino do in Europe? Up until now they were knocking each other out in the preliminary rounds before just a handful progressed to the group stages. Could be some interesting new destinations for Korea if they don't split qualifying on a geographic basis.


It seems that way. The preliminary round looks like it will feature some David v Goliath type of clashes.

A few of the real minnows (e.g. Maldives) will probably also squeeze through to the additional AFC qualifying round where they will take
on the likes of Thailand and Indonesia for the teams get a second bite at the cherry (remaining places at the AFC finals).

Also, with the AFC Asian Cup being increased to 24 teams, anyone who is semi-decent in Asia should qualify. Just had a look at the 2015 AFC Asian Cup qualification.
There were five groups containing 4 teams. The best 3rd placed went through as well.

That means that in the qualifiers only 9 teams were eliminated. With the Challenge Cup places gone (Palestine, India having qualified through them) all the eliminated teams probably would have qualified for the finals if that format had been adopted for 2015.

The vast majority of those teams (who entered qualifiers but didn't make it) are from SE Asia (your Singapores and Malaysias) so we will probably see more of them at the finals in 2019. At the moment
the finals are Australia + the big 4 from NE Asia with the rest all from central and west Asia.

User avatar
SteveW
K2 promotion contender
K2 promotion contender
Posts: 3839
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2005 12:52 am
Location: Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby SteveW » Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:05 pm

I'm a bit confused. (Hardly a new thing)

So the Asian Cup is becoming a straight all in qualification the same way as Europe does things? Are they eliminating the qualification for holders, 3rd place and Challenge Cup winners? Are they eliminating the Challenge Cup entirely?

Also the hosts will have to participate in qualification for the Asian Cup if it also counts towards the World Cup or will the hosts also get a bye into World Cup qualifying?

How many teams total in the pot then in Round 1?

All in all Korea played 14 games to qualify for the WC and Asian Cup total. Is this going to be more or less in the new setup? Seems like it will need to be more and many of them will be against much weaker teams.

Can't help thinking that this isn't going to help Korea, Japan, Iran and Australia improve on their showing this year.

Maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick though?
2014 Cass Lemon ROKfootball Prediction League Cup Competition brought to you in association with Dal Shabet Champion!!!

Groundhopping: the48club.wordpress.com

SEFC: seoulelandfc.wordpress.com

48 Club Count = 47. ONE TO GO!

User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby nzfooty » Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:08 pm

Assuming I understand the process, and if there are no changes....

SteveW wrote:I'm a bit confused. (Hardly a new thing)

So the Asian Cup is becoming a straight all in qualification the same way as Europe does things? Are they eliminating the qualification for holders, 3rd place and Challenge Cup winners? Are they eliminating the Challenge Cup entirely?


Yes, no qualification for holders/runnerup/3rd placed teams.

The first phase (the "preliminary round") will be like UEFA. 12 will qualify for the Nations Cup (and final rounds of WC qualifiers)

On the face of it also no entry for Challenge Cup winners. Challenge Cup might still run. In fact it probably would be good for the teams that don't finish
in the top 36 (the 12 that have qualified and the 24 that are given a second bite).

SteveW wrote:
Also the hosts will have to participate in qualification for the Asian Cup if it also counts towards the World Cup or will the hosts also get a bye into World Cup qualifying?


They will participate in the initial matches as they double for the World Cup.
Even if they are not one of the top-12 teams they will nevertheless qualify for the Asian Nations Cup. Instead the 24 teams given the second bite
will compete for 11 and not 12 places.

SteveW wrote:How many teams total in the pot then in Round 1?


There are 46 AFC national teams - so the groups would have 5 or 6 teams (if they don't change their mind and have additional rounds).

SteveW wrote:All in all Korea played 14 games to qualify for the WC and Asian Cup total. Is this going to be more or less in the new setup? Seems like it will need to be more and many of them will be against much weaker teams.


It will be more.
8 or 10 matches in the preliminary round. Then it will depend on the format of the final round (which will be increased from 10 to 12).
I assume two groups of 6 so 10 matches in the final round.

However, it will be interesting to see what will happen if the AFC are forced to absorb Oceania in order to keep 4.5 places (a 4.25 but still giving a fifth
team a chance).

This contrasts with the 6 matches Korea played to get to the final round, plus the 8 matches in the final round.

Then again, if you factor the AFC qualification matches that will be removed -- the number will probably be very similar. (SKorea will probably
finish in top-3 in 2015 but we are not certain of that).

The matches will also be spread over a slightly longer period of time than the 2014 WC qualifiers.

In addition, Korea is unlikely to play more than 2 crap teams, only one that will get a proper spanking. Pot 6 team (if Korea gets a six
team group) will get annihilated. however, pot 5 team might not be that easy. The drastic drop in quality in Asia comes halfway through
pot 5. In the 2014 qualifiers Mongolia would've been in pot 5 - but so would've the far more solid Vietnamese team.

SteveW wrote:Can't help thinking that this isn't going to help Korea, Japan, Iran and Australia improve on their showing this year.

Maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick though?


Hard to disagree with this observation. They will have to devote more of their time to play crap teams.
Then again it doesn't hurt to see Germany play San Marino from time to time.
As I mentioned above you are looking at no more than 4.

Also in the future it will be harder to arrange glamour friendlies with European and South American teams. Europe will have that nations
league thing running parallel to EURO and WC qualifiers while South America is back to having a 3 year long qualification competition that
will now feature an even number of team (with Brazil having to qualify).

Finally, while those 2 to 4 matches that the big boys will have to play are an inconvenience, the original set-up was really unfair on some
middle ranking teams. The early rounds were played in a knock-out format and if you were unlucky to draw another middle ranking team that
was curtains for you for another four years.

User avatar
SteveW
K2 promotion contender
K2 promotion contender
Posts: 3839
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2005 12:52 am
Location: Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby SteveW » Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:46 pm

nzfooty wrote:Assuming I understand the process, and if there are no changes....

SteveW wrote:I'm a bit confused. (Hardly a new thing)

So the Asian Cup is becoming a straight all in qualification the same way as Europe does things? Are they eliminating the qualification for holders, 3rd place and Challenge Cup winners? Are they eliminating the Challenge Cup entirely?


Yes, no qualification for holders/runnerup/3rd placed teams.

The first phase (the "preliminary round") will be like UEFA. 12 will qualify for the Nations Cup (and final rounds of WC qualifiers)

On the face of it also no entry for Challenge Cup winners. Challenge Cup might still run. In fact it probably would be good for the teams that don't finish
in the top 36 (the 12 that have qualified and the 24 that are given a second bite).

SteveW wrote:
Also the hosts will have to participate in qualification for the Asian Cup if it also counts towards the World Cup or will the hosts also get a bye into World Cup qualifying?


They will participate in the initial matches as they double for the World Cup.
Even if they are not one of the top-12 teams they will nevertheless qualify for the Asian Nations Cup. Instead the 24 teams given the second bite
will compete for 11 and not 12 places.

SteveW wrote:How many teams total in the pot then in Round 1?


There are 46 AFC national teams - so the groups would have 5 or 6 teams (if they don't change their mind and have additional rounds).

SteveW wrote:All in all Korea played 14 games to qualify for the WC and Asian Cup total. Is this going to be more or less in the new setup? Seems like it will need to be more and many of them will be against much weaker teams.


It will be more.
8 or 10 matches in the preliminary round. Then it will depend on the format of the final round (which will be increased from 10 to 12).
I assume two groups of 6 so 10 matches in the final round.

However, it will be interesting to see what will happen if the AFC are forced to absorb Oceania in order to keep 4.5 places (a 4.25 but still giving a fifth
team a chance).

This contrasts with the 6 matches Korea played to get to the final round, plus the 8 matches in the final round.

Then again, if you factor the AFC qualification matches that will be removed -- the number will probably be very similar. (SKorea will probably
finish in top-3 in 2015 but we are not certain of that).

The matches will also be spread over a slightly longer period of time than the 2014 WC qualifiers.

In addition, Korea is unlikely to play more than 2 crap teams, only one that will get a proper spanking. Pot 6 team (if Korea gets a six
team group) will get annihilated. however, pot 5 team might not be that easy. The drastic drop in quality in Asia comes halfway through
pot 5. In the 2014 qualifiers Mongolia would've been in pot 5 - but so would've the far more solid Vietnamese team.

SteveW wrote:Can't help thinking that this isn't going to help Korea, Japan, Iran and Australia improve on their showing this year.

Maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick though?


Hard to disagree with this observation. They will have to devote more of their time to play crap teams.
Then again it doesn't hurt to see Germany play San Marino from time to time.
As I mentioned above you are looking at no more than 4.

Also in the future it will be harder to arrange glamour friendlies with European and South American teams. Europe will have that nations
league thing running parallel to EURO and WC qualifiers while South America is back to having a 3 year long qualification competition that
will now feature an even number of team (with Brazil having to qualify).

Finally, while those 2 to 4 matches that the big boys will have to play are an inconvenience, the original set-up was really unfair on some
middle ranking teams. The early rounds were played in a knock-out format and if you were unlucky to draw another middle ranking team that
was curtains for you for another four years.


Cheers for that...helps me understand if not really agree with the proposal.

Not sure how you are working out your pots or how AFC do it to be honest but going by FIFA rankings as they stand the pots could be:

1: Iran, Japan, Korea, Uzbek, Aus, Jordan, UAE, Oman
2: Saudi, Palestine, Qatar, China, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Vietnam
3: Lebanon, Tajik, Phillipines, Afghan, Syria, Turkmen, DPRK, Maldives
4: Krygy, Thai, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Indonesia, Myanmar, Hong Kong
5. Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Laos, Taipei, Guam, Sri Lanka, Yemen
6. Mongolia, Cambodia, Brunei, Timor, Macau, Bhutan

Which would mean Korea could end up in a group where Vietnam is actually the best team they might face

Imagine a group of Korea, Vietnam, Maldives, India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan. In theory that should be 10 games of handing out sore faces to weak opposition and will end up with the European guys not even bothering to participate.

While I'm sure the room saloners in the squad might enjoy Korea, Vietnam, Phillipines, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia I can't even begin to imagine what they would make of it if say Korea, Japan or Australia managed to pull Palestine, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Yemen and Timor Leste out the hat.
2014 Cass Lemon ROKfootball Prediction League Cup Competition brought to you in association with Dal Shabet Champion!!!

Groundhopping: the48club.wordpress.com

SEFC: seoulelandfc.wordpress.com

48 Club Count = 47. ONE TO GO!

User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby nzfooty » Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:26 am

I can be very lazy at times so I used the 2014 WC qualifications seeding.

That ranking is based on the teams performances in the previous qualifiers.

That FIFA ranking is truly amazing. I just had a look. The scores of the Challenge Cup are multiplied by 2.5.
2.5 is assigned to FIFA World Cup™ qualifier or confederation-level qualifier - so they are treating it as an AFC Cup qualifier!!

Do those nerds in Zurich assigned to do this work actually look away from their monitors from time to time?

Then again, if they seeded Switzerland in the WC they might go with this ranking.

If you go with what I looked at you can still end up with a weak group like this:
sing taj afg mac bhu

But that is quite unlikely.

What I should've written is this:
On average, Korea is unlikely to play more than 2 crap teams

That said, I definitely painted the "best possible scenario" with my post above.

User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby nzfooty » Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:27 pm

New FIFA rankings released today. Click here to see it.

For purposes of these qualifiers it does not change the fact that - as SteveW pointed out - you can a very weak looking
group.

e.g.
Palestine - Afghanistan - India - Guam - Bhutan.

As a fairly strong looking group is also possible:
Saudi Arabia - Syria - North Korea - Yemen - Cambodia

The Challenge Cup points still really distort the FIFA rankings. Palestine is way too high, only two spots behind
Australia who are now the lowest ranked of the eight seeded teams.

The Challenge Cup has also created a situation where pot 4 teams look stronger than pot 3.

Admittedly, all pot 5 and 6 teams look weak (though the bottom pot 5 team, Yemen were much stronger half a decade ago).



Code: Select all

[1]
        45   1   Japan   604   1   Up   
   49   2   Iran   563   -6   Down   
   52   3   Uzbekistan   523   7   Up   
   56   4   Korea Republic   501   1   Up   
   57   5   Jordan   500   6   Up   
   65   6   United Arab Emirates   466   7   Up   
   69   7   Oman   443   10   Up   
   76   8   Australia   397   -14   Down   
==========================================
[2]
   78   9   Saudi Arabia   384   12   Up   
   85   10   Palestine   362   9   Up   
   86   11   Qatar   361   14   Up   
   89   12   Iraq   356   15   Up   
   94   13   China PR   342   9   Up   
   105   14   Bahrain   288   5   Up   
   107   15   Kuwait   281   8   Up   
   119   16   Lebanon   249   6   Up
===========================================================
[3]
   124   17   Tajikistan   232   2   Up   
   128   18   Philippines   218   1   Up   
   129   19   Afghanistan   217   1   Up   
   129   20   Vietnam   217   -6   Down   
   140   21   Turkmenistan   183   3   Up   
   144   22   Kyrgyzstan   176   5   Up   
   145   23   Maldives   171   2   Up   
   146   24   Syria   169   -6   Down   
==========================================================
[4]
   147   25   Korea DPR   163   -1   Down   
   151   26   Malaysia   144   2   Up   
   151   27   India   144   3   Up   
   153   28   Indonesia   141   4   Up   
   154   29   Singapore   140   1   Up   
   157   30   Thailand   128   -8   Down   
   160   31   Myanmar   122   -1   Down   
   162   32   Hong Kong   114   1   Up
===============================================================   
[5]
   163   33   Bangladesh   103   4   Up   
   164   34   Nepal   102   0   Equal   
   165   35   Pakistan   100   -1   Down   
   170   36   Laos   87   -2   Down   
   174   37   Guam   79   4   Up   
   178   38   Sri Lanka   71   1   Up   
   178   39   Chinese Taipei   71   -2   Down   
   180   40   Yemen   70   3   Up   
===============================================================
[6]
   189   41   Mongolia   29   -2   Down   
   192   42   Brunei Darussalam   26   0   Equal   
   192   43   Timor-Leste   26   0   Equal   
   200   44   Cambodia   13   -10   Down   
   204   45   Macau   7   -2   Down   
   208   46   Bhutan   0   -1   Down

User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby nzfooty » Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:33 pm

North Korea will probably move out of pot 4 after the 2015 Asian Cup is over. Their opponents are China, Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia. then again it's not the easiest group.

User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby nzfooty » Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:33 am

Changes to Asian soccer aimed at improving World Cup chances

Asian soccer must adapt to the increasingly competitive nature of the world game or risk being left behind, Alex Soosay, the general secretary of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), said on Wednesday.
Four Asian countries -- Japan, South Korea, Iran and Australia -- qualified for this year's World Cup finals in Brazil but none of them won a game and they all went out in the group stage.
Soosay, speaking to delegates at the Leaders in Sport Summit at Stamford Bridge, said the AFC must make changes to both its international and club competitions to spark an improvement.
"In the AFC we realise that without better competitions among member associations we will struggle to adapt to the increasing competitive nature of the global game," he said.
"As such a new change is on the horizon for the AFC premier competitions. For the Asian Cup the number of teams will be increased from 16 to 24 for the 2019 edition.


More here.

User avatar
SteveW
K2 promotion contender
K2 promotion contender
Posts: 3839
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2005 12:52 am
Location: Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby SteveW » Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:10 pm

We must provide better competitions so we are going to worsen the standard of the Asian Cup by adding 8 more teams that are poorer than the 16 we already had...
2014 Cass Lemon ROKfootball Prediction League Cup Competition brought to you in association with Dal Shabet Champion!!!

Groundhopping: the48club.wordpress.com

SEFC: seoulelandfc.wordpress.com

48 Club Count = 47. ONE TO GO!

FootballisMylove
Korean football wannabe
Korean football wannabe
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 3:55 pm

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby FootballisMylove » Fri Nov 28, 2014 7:08 pm

I think 24 is to many from a quality point of view, in terms of developing football across all of the AFC, it's great news.

Image

User avatar
Alex43
Propping up the K2
Propping up the K2
Posts: 2052
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:17 am

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby Alex43 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:59 pm

so he talks about quality, then answers it with quanity?
well well well

User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby nzfooty » Sun Mar 08, 2015 4:20 am

First round

The first round of AFC matches for 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification (and 2019 AFC Asian Cup qualification) will be played from 12 to 17 March 2015

India v Nepal
Yemen v Pakistan
Timor-Leste v Mongolia
Cambodia v Macau
Chinese Taipei v Brunei
Sri Lanka v Bhutan

Second round

The draw for the second round will be held on 14 April 2015.

A total of 40 teams (teams ranked 1–34 and six first round winners) will be divided into eight groups of five to play home-and-away round-robin matches, where the eight group winners and the four best group runners-up will advance to the third round of FIFA World Cup qualification as well as qualify for the AFC Asian Cup finals.

Matchday 1: 11 June 2015

User avatar
nzfooty
K-League Classic champion
K-League Classic champion
Posts: 6084
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 AFC Asian Cup

Postby nzfooty » Sun Mar 08, 2015 6:57 pm

Having reread SteveW comments (and with the befit of time), I am completely in his camp on this one. The previous system was highly flawed but this is worse.
I guess the dilemma is how do you help the smaller nations without hindering the progress the likes of Iran, South Korea, Japan and Australia should be making.


Return to “Football in Asia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest