2014 World Cup - qualifiers

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eujin
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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby eujin » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:27 pm

I think we might be a bit quick to jump to conclusions here.

First of all, Indonesia had already shipped 16 goals in their previous five matches, a not particularly flattering figure.

Secondly, Indonesia had their keeper sent off in the second minute. Never a good start to a game. They played the entire match ten men against eleven. The guy they brought on had zero international caps.

Thirdly, as has been mentioned, Indonesia had nothing to play for and Bahrain knew they needed to run up the score. You play completely differently with say a 2-0 or 3-0 lead if you just need the three points than how you play when you need another 8 goals or so.

Fourthly, and perhaps most importantly, we all know what's being going on in Indonesia recently with a bunch of clubs forming their own league and falling out big time with the FA. The squad that they picked for this match was not only a very youthful, experimental team, but also players from clubs not currently fighting the FA in international courts. No players from recent ACL teams Sriwijaya or Persipura and a total number of caps before the game, in the entire squad, of less than twenty, most guys making their debut and average age not much above 21.

In a game that's meaningless for you, with an opponent champing at the bit to run up the goals, away from home, on the other side of Asia...

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby eujin » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:39 pm

just because wrote:*So many middle eastern countries (other than Saudi) are through...maybe all the oil money IS having an effect on the football over there. Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon (great effort), Oman, Iran and Qatar...that is 6 out of the 10 with the others being the big 3 in the east and Uzbek.....

Interestingly I was thinking the exact opposite. :?

Only really three of those, Iraq, Iran and Qatar are major oil/gas producers and Iraq not really in any shape to pump money into the football team at the moment (played two of their home games in Qatar.) The Iranian economy also not in the best of ways and I hope to God they get to play the rest of their qualifiers at home before something bad happens. I was thinking perhaps the Saudi money men have gotten bored of football and was wondering to myself what they'd wandered off to instead - maybe a full frontal assault on the winter Olympics?

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby just because » Thu Mar 01, 2012 8:32 pm

eujin wrote:
just because wrote:*So many middle eastern countries (other than Saudi) are through...maybe all the oil money IS having an effect on the football over there. Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon (great effort), Oman, Iran and Qatar...that is 6 out of the 10 with the others being the big 3 in the east and Uzbek.....

Interestingly I was thinking the exact opposite. :?

Only really three of those, Iraq, Iran and Qatar are major oil/gas producers and Iraq not really in any shape to pump money into the football team at the moment (played two of their home games in Qatar.) The Iranian economy also not in the best of ways and I hope to God they get to play the rest of their qualifiers at home before something bad happens. I was thinking perhaps the Saudi money men have gotten bored of football and was wondering to myself what they'd wandered off to instead - maybe a full frontal assault on the winter Olympics?


I suppose it just seems disproportional to me that so many of the teams come from one part of the AFC.....I suppose the lack of strength in SE and S Asia doesn't help though.

As for the Saudi team...they might need some snow.

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby eujin » Thu Mar 01, 2012 8:41 pm

just because wrote:As for the Saudi team...they might need some snow.

If you're willing to waste enough money, snow's snow problem. They already have an indoor piste in Dubai - just need to make them BIGGER!!!

In 2010, apart from North Korea, it was pretty much the same story at the same stage in terms of East/West/South-east/South split.

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby nzfooty » Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:04 pm

eujin wrote:I think we might be a bit quick to jump to conclusions here.


I came close to saying Bahrain were guilty of something dodgy but then corrected myself an dsuggested more on the lines that there was, on the face of it. a case to answer.

Let's turn what you have written on its head:

eujin wrote:First of all, Indonesia had already shipped 16 goals in their previous five matches, a not particularly flattering figure.


That's a little over 3 goals/match, not 10 - a huge difference you will admit.

eujin wrote:Secondly, Indonesia had their keeper sent off in the second minute. Never a good start to a game. They played the entire match ten men against eleven. The guy they brought on had zero international caps.


Obviously that's the whole point. How often do keepers get sent-off? And how often do ANY players get sent-off after 2 min? Now combine the two,
And even better, conveniently Indonesia have a rubbish keeper on the bench.

eujin wrote:Thirdly, as has been mentioned, Indonesia had nothing to play for and Bahrain knew they needed to run up the score. You play completely differently with say a 2-0 or 3-0 lead if you just need the three points than how you play when you need another 8 goals or so.


...and any half-decent coach who spots this a mile away and parks a bus in front of the goal. This was not a case of England needing to run up the score against San Marino ala 1993, but Bahrain (native population about 660,000) playing Indonesia (native population about 238,000,000 -- only about 360 larger population wise). In addition, as I mentioned, Indonesia only 5 years ago did Bahrain in at the finals of the 2007 Asian Nations Cup.... a few days later Bahrain defeated South Korea.

eujin wrote:Fourthly, and perhaps most importantly, we all know what's being going on in Indonesia recently with a bunch of clubs forming their own league and falling out big time with the FA. The squad that they picked for this match was not only a very youthful, experimental team, but also players from clubs not currently fighting the FA in international courts. No players from recent ACL teams Sriwijaya or Persipura and a total number of caps before the game, in the entire squad, of less than twenty, most guys making their debut and average age not much above 21.


A good opportunity for outsiders to exploit the chaos to their advantage... and need be use it to defend an usual set of circumstances.

eujin wrote:In a game that's meaningless for you, with an opponent champing at the bit to run up the goals, away from home, on the other side of Asia...


This was Indonesia's heaviest defeat ever. How could that happen against a team Indonesia had, in 6 previous encounters, defeated 2 times, with the other four matches ending in two draws and two defeats?
Indonesia are not an Asian powerhouse in football, but at the same time they are no slouches either: they have defeated Uruguay in the past, held European
nations to draws, defeated Japan and South Korea on number of occasions and IRC the last time they played my beloved All Whites they thumped us 5-0.

Q.E.D.

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby eujin » Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:21 pm

Goalkeepers get sent off for professional fouls, regardless of when they happen. These are the inexperienced youth boys, possibly never played outside of Indonesia, who play for the second rate Indonesian clubs, playing with ten men against a team hungry for goals who only just missed out in 2010. Why would the Indonesia coach park the bus - there are several reasons why he wouldn't. You're a long way from QED by my standards, but lets see what the AFC and FIFA come up with.

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby nzfooty » Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:36 pm

eujin wrote:Goalkeepers get sent off for professional fouls, regardless of when they happen. These are the inexperienced youth boys, possibly never played outside of Indonesia, who play for the second rate Indonesian clubs, playing with ten men against a team hungry for goals who only just missed out in 2010. You're a long way from QED by my standards, but lets see what the AFC and FIFA come up with.


QED there is a case to answer. Of course boys v men will usually end up badly. Sending a rubbish team to a match where GD counts, where you have your keeper sent-off after after two minutes is somehow standard? Btw, why do you describe men who are 21 to 30 yo as boys?

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby nzfooty » Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:43 pm

FIFA to examine Bahrain's 10-0 win over Indonesia

BERNE, March 1 (Reuters) - Bahrain's 10-0 win over Indonesia in a World Cup qualifier on Wednesday is to be examined by FIFA's security department, soccer's governing body said on Thursday.
"Given the unusual outcome in relation to the results-expectation and head-to-head history, and in the interests of maintaining unequivocal confidence in our game, FIFA Security will conduct a routine examination of this game and its result," FIFA said in a statement.
Bahrain had needed a nine-goal win in the Asian Group E match, combined with a defeat for Qatar in Iran, to progress to the next stage of the region's World Cup qualifying competition.
Qatar went through, however, when an 86th-minute goal gave them a 2-2 draw in Iran to clinch second place in the group at Bahrain's expense.
Indonesia, already eliminated, fielded a weakened team as a number of their top players had been suspended by their own federation.
(Writing by Brian Homewood in Berne; Editing by Clare Fallon)

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby eujin » Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:04 pm

nzfooty wrote:Btw, why do you describe men who are 21 to 30 yo as boys?

Just a figure of speech, like boys from up North or boys in blue. Also another sign I'm getting old :wink: .

There are a few older heads in the squad but compared to their last game against Iran, the average age and experience must have fallen by quite a bit. This is not entirely normal, but then what is going on in Indonesian football is not entirely normal either. The closest I can think of is some of the times when there have been strikes and non-unionised players have come in in the US for example. Anyone remember the Chicago Spare Bears?

From the Jakarta Globe;

After the national team selectors deciding to ditch all the players involved in the “rebel” Indonesian Super League it was left with a very small talent pool, a point driven home when Dutch side PSV Eindhoven pulled out of a couple of friendlies, citing concerns over the quality of opposition.

A new coach was brought in for the final game, Aji Santoso, and he was told to call up the kids.


Blackburn are only conceding an average of just over two goals a game in this year's premiership, but they still managed to concede seven against Arsenal, who themselves let in eight against Man Utd. As far as I know there was nothing dodgey about those results. Sometimes teams click, especially against a demoralised ten men. It's perhaps not as unlikely as some might believe. Four penalties awarded is a bit of an outlier too but it has happened to Brighton in the "derby".

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby Holyjoe » Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:49 am

nzfooty wrote:
daeguowl wrote:I wonder how they will seed round 5, does japan finishing second make anything more tricky for Korea? Hope they get Oman, qatar and the Uzbeks as they are all teams for me to tick off my list...


Wiki says it may be done according to the March FIFA ranking in which case Sth Korea will probably end up being ranked #3


Japan have given up their top seed status to take one of the fifth seed spots to ensure they have no World Cup qualifying fixtures when they take part in the 2013 Confederations Cup in June next year, so Korea and Australia will be the top two seeds. Ideally they'll avoid Japan but games with more of a competitive edge might be just what they need after looking decidedly dodgy in a relatively weak third round group.

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby just because » Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:34 am

Holyjoe wrote:
nzfooty wrote:
daeguowl wrote:I wonder how they will seed round 5, does japan finishing second make anything more tricky for Korea? Hope they get Oman, qatar and the Uzbeks as they are all teams for me to tick off my list...


Wiki says it may be done according to the March FIFA ranking in which case Sth Korea will probably end up being ranked #3


Japan have given up their top seed status to take one of the fifth seed spots to ensure they have no World Cup qualifying fixtures when they take part in the 2013 Confederations Cup in June next year, so Korea and Australia will be the top two seeds. Ideally they'll avoid Japan but games with more of a competitive edge might be just what they need after looking decidedly dodgy in a relatively weak third round group.

That sucks as I was hoping Australia and Korea would draw each other in the last phase....the group without Japan should be the weaker so if Korea draws the 4th seed (Uzbek??) then it should be plain sailing.

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby nzfooty » Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:19 pm

eujin wrote:
Blackburn are only conceding an average of just over two goals a game in this year's premiership, but they still managed to concede seven against Arsenal, who themselves let in eight against Man Utd. As far as I know there was nothing dodgey about those results. Sometimes teams click, especially against a demoralised ten men. It's perhaps not as unlikely as some might believe. Four penalties awarded is a bit of an outlier too but it has happened to Brighton in the "derby".


The only difference being that Arsenal did not have to beat Blackburn by six goals... and the same for the Utd match. So the suspicion is not there.

Having said that, NZ famously defeated Saudi Arabia 5-0 in Riyadh on their way to the 1982 World Cup -- in a match they needed to win by at least five goals. I've meet some Chinese football fans who claim that money must have swaped hands... which sounds ridiculous to anyone who knows anything about NZ football.

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby nzfooty » Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:24 pm

just because wrote:
Holyjoe wrote:
nzfooty wrote:
daeguowl wrote:I wonder how they will seed round 5, does japan finishing second make anything more tricky for Korea? Hope they get Oman, qatar and the Uzbeks as they are all teams for me to tick off my list...


Wiki says it may be done according to the March FIFA ranking in which case Sth Korea will probably end up being ranked #3


Japan have given up their top seed status to take one of the fifth seed spots to ensure they have no World Cup qualifying fixtures when they take part in the 2013 Confederations Cup in June next year, so Korea and Australia will be the top two seeds. Ideally they'll avoid Japan but games with more of a competitive edge might be just what they need after looking decidedly dodgy in a relatively weak third round group.

That sucks as I was hoping Australia and Korea would draw each other in the last phase....the group without Japan should be the weaker so if Korea draws the 4th seed (Uzbek??) then it should be plain sailing.


Is that really necessary? Cannot Japan be top seeded for the purposes of the draw and then "swap" their schedule with the fifth seeded team? The CC is a FIFA tournament anyway.

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby eujin » Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:07 pm

nzfooty wrote:The only difference being that Arsenal did not have to beat Blackburn by six goals... and the same for the Utd match. So the suspicion is not there.

I would've said that outlier results are more likely in honest games when one team needs the goals. There's all sorts of things you do when you're coasting, showing off, take the best players off to prevent injury, playing the keeper up front...

In the end I don't know what FIFA can or will do about it. Maybe it deserves more investigation than Denmark's 2-2 with Sweden in Euro2004 because they're, ummm, lower down the "corruption" tables, but I wouldn't spend vast amounts of money on it, nor would I conclude that there was clearly something wrong but no one can be bothered to investigate. Talk to all the officials, ask them if they were bribed, check bookmakers to see if unusually large money was placed, look at the tape to see if the sending off and penalties are "giveable" (it was up on youtube yesterday from a single angle half-way line position - so difficult to say). Any advantage Bahrain may have sought went to nothing, Qatar can have no further complaints and just maybe it'll help Indonesia get their act together.

For me the writing was on the wall (with hindsight) when the Indonesians decided all their top league players were ineligible. 3-0 and 4-0 they lost their other two away games in the group (with the first team). So give a couple of goals for playing the whole game with ten men, a couple of goals for Bahrain wanting it more and a couple of goals for playing the third string and 9-0, 10-0 doesn't sound too far fetched (to me).

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Re: 2014 World Cup - qualifiers

Postby Holyjoe » Sat Mar 03, 2012 7:12 am

nzfooty wrote:
just because wrote:
Holyjoe wrote:
nzfooty wrote:
daeguowl wrote:I wonder how they will seed round 5, does japan finishing second make anything more tricky for Korea? Hope they get Oman, qatar and the Uzbeks as they are all teams for me to tick off my list...


Wiki says it may be done according to the March FIFA ranking in which case Sth Korea will probably end up being ranked #3


Japan have given up their top seed status to take one of the fifth seed spots to ensure they have no World Cup qualifying fixtures when they take part in the 2013 Confederations Cup in June next year, so Korea and Australia will be the top two seeds. Ideally they'll avoid Japan but games with more of a competitive edge might be just what they need after looking decidedly dodgy in a relatively weak third round group.

That sucks as I was hoping Australia and Korea would draw each other in the last phase....the group without Japan should be the weaker so if Korea draws the 4th seed (Uzbek??) then it should be plain sailing.


Is that really necessary? Cannot Japan be top seeded for the purposes of the draw and then "swap" their schedule with the fifth seeded team? The CC is a FIFA tournament anyway.


I'm convinced I read that they've decided/had to officially give up the seeding but now of course I can't find hide nor hair of such an article. May have 'read' that after a few beers (that may have happened once or twice)... :oops:


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